VENEZUELA 2025: The Triumph of the Neocons over Realpolitik, Russia and China Playing It Safe
- Trump, who today leads the American administration, presents himself as a peacemaker, yet he does not relinquish the notion of “America for Americans.” He wants no drugs on the territory of the United States, nor any migrants. He has accused the President of Venezuela of collaborating with drug cartels and seeks his overthrow from power…
RESPONSE: Trump’s “peacemaking” image is a political façade. He styles himself as the “president of peace” because in his first term he avoided new large-scale ground wars, but he bombed Iran and authorised the services to conduct special military operations against Venezuela, imposed a naval blockade and strikes on Venezuelan vessels (61 dead at sea). “America for Americans” can mean anything: from the idea that South America belongs to North America, through the fight against drug cartels that have become an obstacle, to the labelling of disobedient regimes as “narco-regimes” regardless of how much sense that makes or whether there exists any evidence for such claims. The aggressive battle for resources, the crusading spirit and the regime change that now obsess American policy indicate that the neocons have taken over. They handled Iraq in a similar fashion two decades ago, as well as the colour revolutions in Eastern Europe and the “Arab Spring.” Here is the engine for ideological wars against dictators (in which fewer and fewer believe) and an ever more naked battle for resources and power.
- What is the objective of American strategy toward Venezuela?
RESPONSE: The objective is complete control over resources, and that will occur only through the violent change of regime in the state with the largest oil reserves on the planet (and not only oil). The accusation of “narco-terrorism” is merely a pretext. Maduro was accused back in 2020, and now the accusation serves to legalise an invasion. Trump will not negotiate; the Grenell agreement on oil has been thrown in the rubbish because Rubio (Secretary of State) wants war. This clearly shows that the dualism of Trumpian foreign policy is slowly disappearing, in which realpolitik is being pushed aside, and dominating – around Ukraine, around Israel, and around Venezuela – is the hard aggressive stance of the neocons, whose old representative is Rubio. It now appears that from an opponent of the endless wars waged by the neocons, Trump has become “their man.” Is this pragmatic pact-making with another lobby or “capitulation” before the neocons and the deep state? More the latter than the former.
- What number attempt is this to overthrow Maduro from power?
RESPONSE: This is, as diligent chroniclers of American foreign policy have counted, the fifth serious attempt to overthrow Maduro in the last five or six years: from recognising the victory in elections of the one who was defeated in the elections, through mercenary strikes, through sanctions, special operations, naval strikes and CIA drone strikes.
- Maduro is a socialist; within the country they blame him for enormous inflation, corruption… How has a country extremely rich in oil, diamonds and other natural riches fallen to the beggar’s staff?
RESPONSE: It is a combination of external pressure and sanctions (we at least know what that looks like) with internal problems caused by poor management and massive corruption. Before Maduro, his political father Chávez was in power, against whom more than two decades ago the United States organised a military coup, but the people gathered in their millions in the capital Caracas and brought about the return of the “missing president,” who as a populist and reformer was extremely popular in the country – especially among the poorer layers and the disenfranchised descendants of the Indios, to whom he brought modern healthcare and schooling to every village. He was a Bolivarian, which means a republican and anti-globalist – thus neither a classic leftist even though he had the support of leftists, nor a “nationalist.” Now the situation is different. The country has been decaying for years under sanctions and internal corruption. Every time “narco-terrorism” is the pretext, and the goal is oil and reserves of over 300 billion barrels. A rich country has become socialist-poor like some new Cuba because the Americans have cut off all sources of income they could and because the leftist government was rigid toward the private sector. The authorities nationalised the oil companies and dismissed many people who were not loyal and thus remained without experts. That, together with sanctions, led to a fall in production of about four times, and with the fall in the price of oil came the collapse of the budget. The authorities went for printing money and there came million-percent inflation as in Serbia in 1993. Corruption extracted hundreds of billions of dollars from the oil industry. Sanctions are the most important for the collapse of the economy and society together with the statist leftist regime that reduced investments and weakened the private sector. Without experts and with little investment, oil production fell more than four times, and similarly in other economic branches. All that led to mass migrations and a shortage of experts who could maintain oil production at a somewhat stable level.
- Trump has accused Maduro also of a large number of illegal migrants… who come to the territory of the United States. The United States is conducting the largest military concentration in the Caribbean in the last 35 years; there is also the largest aircraft carrier Gerald Ford and 15,000 American troops. Will Venezuela and the United States enter into war?
RESPONSE: Migrants are a symptom, not a cause. We have millions of refugees in the last decade or so as from war-ruined Ukraine, but also severe poverty and even hunger, million-percent hyperinflation, electricity restrictions. The system is on the verge of collapse – which is the consequence of sanctions and the hybrid war that America is waging toward Venezuela (similar to Serbia in the nineties, only bombing is still missing as the finale). Trump uses those millions of unfortunates who have fled misery as proof that Maduro is a “narco-king” who “empties prisons” and sends gangs to the United States. Those drug cartels are real, but Maduro is not El Chapo. Migrations are the consequence of the collapse that is the consequence of American sanctions, and not a planned and organised export of criminals.Will there be open war? It is a real option and the doors to it are wide open. The resolution in the Senate failed by which Trump would have to seek consent for a military strike on Venezuela. Thus he has free hands – and that is a victory for the neocons. The aircraft carrier Gerald Ford and 15,000 troops are near Venezuela. Trump says he is not for war, but that Maduro’s days are numbered. That says that the approach is a combination of external actions of lower intensity and an internal military coup.
- How realistic is it that we see a serious military intervention against Venezuela and what could it look like?
RESPONSE: Invasion is possible, but most likely not classic, because those ten or fifteen thousand troops are not sufficient for a ground intervention and occupation, but they are for special operations and air strikes – especially with drones and possibly cruise missiles. The scenario in play is massive air and naval strikes on military facilities, ports, refineries, and the goal is to cause the collapse of the regime and a military coup. The risk is that the regime survives and that Russia and China send air defence systems with which they could partially parry American strikes. That in turn can accelerate America’s decision to attack while the rivals have not yet arrived with their systems in Venezuela.
- Maduro has requested help from Russia, China and Iran… Alexey Zhuravlyov, first deputy chairman of the Committee of the Russian State Duma for Defence, said also that Russia continues to supply arms to Caracas. How to interpret that? What interests does Russia have in that part of the world?
RESPONSE: Russia has contracts for 30 years of exploitation of oil and gas. Zhuravlyov from the Russian Duma says that Russia is arming Venezuela with everything and anything and threatens that “nothing prevents us from giving Oreshnik or Kalibr.” The interest is that the Russians have invested tens of billions of dollars, and 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil go to Russia bypassing sanctions. Venezuela is Russia’s “anti-American bastion” down there “across from Florida.” Russia wants in this way to obtain some kind of peace around Ukraine and the lifting of Western sanctions, that is, America’s. All according to the logic “give us peace in Ukraine, we won’t interfere with you around Venezuela or Iran.” But America does not react to such moves and considers that Russia is provoking and bluffing. Probably they are right.
- There is also a strategic agreement between the two countries. Moscow has acquired rights to explore natural gas and oil deposits in Venezuela worth billions of dollars. Is Trump also fighting for Venezuela’s natural resources?
RESPONSE: Yes, Trump’s America is fighting for the same resources. Especially since Trump is a representative of the oil-mining lobby that supported him in the presidential campaign. Thus it happened that in the name of realpolitik – to prevent the strategic strengthening of China and Russia in the region – and the oil lobby, Grenell negotiated with Maduro, who agreed and offered all the oil to American companies. But Trump, under pressure from the neocons – as with Ukraine – abandons realpolitik and goes aggressively for regime change. Trump rejected Maduro’s generous offer and demanded all the oil, and that for free, invoking the case of Iraq 2003 when it was occupied.
Rubio brutally responded that Venezuela is a “narco-state,” and the oil is then war booty in the fight with the “cartel.” Thus Trump turned his back on the oil lobby that financed him in the campaign for president, which sought control over Venezuelan oil for 49 years and which pushed the former head of Exxon Tillerson as Trump’s advisor. Now that current is completely defeated by the neocons and the deep state, and something similar happened around Ukraine. Thus Trump’s first term, and the second, was marked by a Janus-faced policy, but which over time becomes only one face – the face of aggressive crusaders and interventionists of the neocons.
- And in Mexico there is a similar situation. The Trump administration has begun detailed planning of a new mission to send American troops and intelligence officers to Mexico to suppress drug cartels. However, unlike Maduro, the President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum has allowed the expansion of CIA activities in the country.
RESPONSE: I would not compare Venezuela and Mexico at all and America’s attitude toward them. Mexico has agreed to CIA drones and American special forces for the fight against drug cartels. The first person of Mexico Sheinbaum of course said “no American soldiers,” but allows flights over the territory and special teams on the ground. According to American media, Trump plans “quiet” strikes on drug laboratories and command posts, and if Mexico by chance refuses, he threatens them with 25% tariffs. The difference is: Sheinbaum is not Maduro – she is an ally of America, and Maduro an enemy.
- What is the fate of South America? Does poverty and misery seek salvation in drug dealing? Do the United States appear as a saviour or is it a matter of the political and economic interest of a great power?
RESPONSE: The fate of South America, because of the complete loss of sovereignty and the suffocation of the last pockets of resistance such as Venezuela, is sad and unfortunate. Something similar to what the Balkans experienced, only squared. And that means the reign of poverty, corruption and drug cartels, and that is a vicious circle from which there is no exit. At least none is visible for now. In Venezuela, but also in a good part of that part of the world, half the population is below the poverty line, and cocaine is a significant part of GDP. America proclaims its “wars on drugs” only against those who interfere with it in the battle for control over states and resources, and that is oil in Venezuela, lithium in Bolivia, and copper in Chile. Here is offered and imposed the eternal Colombian scenario where the cartels have swallowed the state and are destroying society.Thus to conclude Trump will not negotiate. He wants Maduro’s head on a platter and Venezuelan oil for free. The oil lobby supported him around the peaceful surrender of Venezuela’s oil resources with the survival of Maduro in power (at least temporarily), but he made a deal with the neocons who at any price want regime change. But that option also plays for the oilmen if there comes a quick collapse of power in Venezuela and if China and Russia do not rush into the empty space.
But knowing how China and Russia play it safe and timidly so as not to anger America too much, Venezuela has little help and no excessive hope. Russia and China if they wanted could years ago have armed Venezuela or raised its capacities for oil production – and they did not. If larger air strikes begin and if they fail to quickly break Maduro’s regime, a new river of refugees starts that will join the existing ones, of which there are eight million, and the region sinks into chaos and misery. But even if there comes a collapse of the regime and a military coup, in the long term that does not have to mean a much better scenario for Venezuela and the region.
Interview given for TV Vesti 7.11.2025.
